Miami
About MiamiMiami is an international center for trade, commerce, finance, tourism, arts and real estate. The city serves as a bridge between North America and Latin America. The Miami metropolitan area is the 7th-largest in the United States, with more than 5.5 million people, although the city proper contains about 450,000. Miami is often listed as one of the most vulnerable cities in the world to coastal flooding in terms of the total financial cost of assets at risk.
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Storm Surge HistoryA scientific literature review provides maximum water levels for 28 storm surge events at Miami since 1880. The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 generated the highest water level with a storm tide of 15 ft. An unnamed hurricane in 1888 generated a 14-ft storm tide and Hurricane Andrew of 1992 generated a storm tide of 11.81 ft. Andrew was a small but intense hurricane- the 11.81 ft observation was taken from the northern portion of Biscayne Bay, near the southern edge of the data selection circle. Water levels near downtown Miami remained under 10 ft, while they reached as high as 17 ft near the point of landfall.
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Infographics
Histogram
This histogram provides the maximum water levels of the 23 recorded coastal flood events in Miami since 1880. The events are ordered from the highest water level (Rank = 1) to lowest (Rank = 23). These events are not placed in chronological order. Water levels for all events were converted to Mean Sea Level (MSL) and then detrended to remove the influence of sea-level rise.
Time Series
This time series provides the maximum water levels of 23 recorded coastal flood at Miami since 1880. These events are ordered chronologically from oldest (left) to newest (right). The numerous low-magnitude observations since 2000 are a function of both climate and data access, as tide-gauge data are available at this site since 1996. Hurricane climatology became more active in the region since the mid-90s, due to a positive phase shift of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. All observations have been adjusted to the common datum of NAVD88. Hurricane Irma generated the 7th highest water level since 1880 when sea-level rise is included.
Map of Highest Recorded Storm Tide
The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 generated a 14.5-foot storm tide near Miami. This is the highest recorded coastal flooding level in history in this location.
Return Period
Return period analysis provides estimates of the frequency of extreme water levels
Storm tide return levels based on observed data from 1880-2017 (138 years) for Miami. This method uses a log-linear regression plot. These data have been detrended and are plotted above Annually Adjusted Mean Sea Level (AAMSL).
Return Period (Years) |
Storm Tide Level (Feet above Mean Sea Level) |
500 |
21.20 |
200 |
17.03 |
100 |
13.88 |
50 |
10.73 |
25 |
7.58 |
10 |
3.42 |
The correct way to interpret this analysis is as follows: Based on a log-linear regression of observed data from 1880-2017, storm tide levels in the Miami area should equal or exceed 13.88 ft every 100 years, on average. Water levels for long return periods that exceed the length of the dataset (138 years) are based on linear interpolation.
According to this regression, the 14.5-foot storm tide generated by the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 was a 115-year event. This was the highest observed water level on record.
According to this regression, the 14.5-foot storm tide generated by the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 was a 115-year event. This was the highest observed water level on record.
Data Selection Circle
The Miami data-selection circle has a 5-mile radius and is centered near Miami's downtown waterfront. It extends from Miami Beach in the northeast to Key Biscayne in the southeast and near Coral Gables in the southwest. Data within this circle come from coastline along the Atlantic Ocean, northern Biscayne Bay, Miami harbor and intracoastal waterway. If a hurricane generated multiple high water marks within this circle, the highest one was selected for the data list.
Data Sources
1. Tide Gauge Data from NOAA Tides and Currents
Virginia Key Tide Gauge
Operation: National Ocean Service (NOS)
Coordinates: Lat: 25.7192, Lon: -80.1519
Link: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8723214
Verified Hourly Data
January 1, 1996 - Present
Verified 6-min Data
January 1, 1996 - Present
Virginia Key Tide Gauge
Operation: National Ocean Service (NOS)
Coordinates: Lat: 25.7192, Lon: -80.1519
Link: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8723214
Verified Hourly Data
January 1, 1996 - Present
Verified 6-min Data
January 1, 1996 - Present
2. Other Scientific Sources
The U-Surge project has utilized dozens of data sources in addition to tide gauge data. These sources include National Hurricane Center reports, summaries from The Monthly Weather Review, newspaper archives, statements from National Weather Service Offices, as well as information from other governmental entities, like FEMA, USGS, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
Sea Level Rise
Table of SLR scenarios for Virginia Key (Miami), Florida, from CorpsClimate web-tool developed by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Data from this table revised July 18, 2017. Available on the Web at: http://corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfm.
Graph of SLR scenarios for Virginia Key (Miami), Florida, from CorpsClimate web-tool developed by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Data from this table revised July 18, 2017. Available on the Web at: http://corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfm.
Missing Data
The following hurricanes may have generated storm surges exceeding 4 ft (1.22 m) near Miami, but a literature review does not yet provide data. We have identified six storms that are missing storm surge data from 1880- present. The maps are provided by Unisys Corporation.
Aug 18-25, 1891
Oct 12-21, 1904
Oct 6-13, 1909
"Not Missing" Data
Several high-profile hurricanes that struck Florida from 1928-1941 are not classified as missing from the Miami storm surge database, because it's unlikely that any of them produced a storm surge exceeding 4 ft (1.22 m) near Miami.
Lake Okeechobee Hurricane
Sep 6-21, 1928
The Lake Okeechobee Hurricane generated a lake-surge that caused levee failure on Lake Okeechobee, leading to the drowning of more than 2,000 people. This powerful hurricane also generated a 9.8-ft (2.99 m) storm tide near Palm Beach/ West Palm Beach. However, it made landfall well north of the Miami region, making it unlikely that storm tide levels exceeded 4 ft (1.22 m) near Miami.
The Labor Day Hurricane
Aug 29 - Sep 10, 1935
The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane made landfall in the Florida Keys as a Category-5 hurricane. Although this storm inflicted catastrophic damage, it was extremely small, with a radius of maximum winds of only 6 nautical miles (11 km). It also intensified rapidly as it approached landfall, making it unlikely that this hurricane generated storm surge exceeding 4 ft (1.22 m) near Miami.
Oct 3-13, 1941
Caption: Although the hurricane of October, 1941, directly struck Miami, it did not generate substantial storm surge in the Miami metro area. The St. Petersburg Times from October 7, 1941 (page 10) provides information about injuries in Miami, none of which related to flooding.
Resources
The National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Miami has a memorial webpage devoted to the memory of the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. Link: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/?n=miami_hurricane
Hurricane Climatology
South Florida has experienced substantial variability in hurricane strike climatology when comparing the early-mid 1900s to the late 1900s - early 2000s. The graphic above shows that 15 major hurricanes struck the region in the 46-year period 1920 -1965. This time period remarkably averaged a major hurricane strike every 3.07 years on average. By contrast, in the 53-year period 1966 - 2018, only five major hurricanes struck the region (the four shown in the graph, plus Hurricane Irma (2018)). This rate decreased to a major hurricane strike every 10.6 years on average.
Keim et al. (2007) provided a more localized analysis of hurricane and major hurricane return periods for cities from Texas to Maine. This analysis found that from 1901-2005, Miami averaged 1 hurricane strike every 5 years and a major hurricane strike every 18 years, on average. This makes Miami among the most active areas for hurricane strikes in the U.S., comparable with other locations in Southwest Florida and the Florida Keys.
Potential Financial Losses
AIR WORLDWIDE estimates the top three historic hurricanes that would inflict the greatest losses have all occurred in SE FL.
COMPARISON WITH FEMA FIRM MAPS
FEMA FIRM maps place coastal communities of Coral Gables, south of downtown Miami, in the AE Flood Zone (high flood hazard) with a Base Flood Elevation (BFE) of 11 feet. This area has observed some of the highest water levels in the U-Surge Miami zone, with nearby water levels reaching 14.5 feet above Mean Sea Level (MSL) in the Great Miami (1926) Hurricane, 10.33 ft above MSL in Hurricane Andrew (1992) and 9.91 feet above MSL in the 1945 Hurricane.
Multi-Media
Hurricane Irma (2017)
Hurricane Sandy (2012)
Hurricane Wilma (2005)
Storm surge flooding is visible several times in this video
Hurricane Andrew (1992)
Caption: Storm surge from Hurricane Andrew swept cars, boats, and houses inland in South Miami-Dade County in 1992
Link: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article32295957.html#storylink=cpy
Note: This photo was taken in South Miami-Dade County, well south of Miami's data circle with a 10-mile radius
Link: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article32295957.html#storylink=cpy
Note: This photo was taken in South Miami-Dade County, well south of Miami's data circle with a 10-mile radius
Caption: Link: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/lib1/nhclib/mwreviews/1992.pdf
[Page 530....Caption: "Fig. 10. Analysis and representative observations of the maximum storm tide during Hurricane Andrew's landfall in Florida, labeled in meters above 1929 mean sea level. Shading indicates inland inundation."
[Page 530....Caption: "Fig. 10. Analysis and representative observations of the maximum storm tide during Hurricane Andrew's landfall in Florida, labeled in meters above 1929 mean sea level. Shading indicates inland inundation."
Hurricane Betsy (1965)
Betsy's storm tide in Miami Beach, FL. Source: Getty Images
Hurricane Donna (1960)
Coastal flooding footage from 5:30-6:00 and from 8:55-10:00. Verbal description of the fast water rise between 9:00-10:00 in this video.
Unnamed Hurricane (1945)
This video contains some storm surge footage, particularly near the beginning.
The Great Miami Hurricane (1926)
The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 generated a 15-ft (4.57-m) storm tide in Miami. Submerged palm trees reveal the extraordinary water levels in this historic photo.
The large and powerful storm surge washed this boat inland near Bayshore Blvd. during the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926.
Miami Beach following the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926.
