Storm Surge Return Frequencies
On Sunday, October 4, 2015, a prolonged onshore wind event caused salt water to smash over a seawall in Avalon, New Jersey (Photo below from Hal Needham). How often does a flood of this magnitude occur on average in this location? Was this a 5-year, 10-year or 25-year event? And is the frequency of these flood events increasing or remaining the same?
Storm surge return frequencies are statistical solutions that answer such questions. Such methods use extreme value analysis, or other modern statistical techniques, to estimate how often an extreme event of a given magnitude repeats itself. Such analyses are useful for determining how high to build a seawall or elevate a house, where to locate a power plant, or what to charge for a flood insurance premium.
Log-Linear Plots
Log-Linear Plots provide a method to estimate storm surge return levels for coastal communities. This process utilizes the Weibull Plotting Position Formula for analysis, and outperformed the Point Process method in Needham (2014).
Our methods provide a unique perspective because they are data-driven, using observed storm surge levels since 1900. These analyses are available for the 50 U.S. cities listed under the Products-Data Tab. See graphical and tabular examples below.
Our methods provide a unique perspective because they are data-driven, using observed storm surge levels since 1900. These analyses are available for the 50 U.S. cities listed under the Products-Data Tab. See graphical and tabular examples below.
South Padre Island, Texas
Customized Return Frequency Analysis
If you are interested in a site-specific return frequency analysis, please email: hal@marineweatherandclimate.com
If you are interested in a site-specific return frequency analysis, please email: hal@marineweatherandclimate.com