Sabine Pass
About Sabine Pass
Sabine Pass is a small city located on the west bank of the Sabine River, which also help serve as a boundary between Texas and Louisiana. Annexed in 1978 by the city of Port Arthur (which is 20 minutes away), it is known to be a "self-contained city" because it has its own school district, port authority, post office and water district. This city has a land area of 364.5 square miles with a population density of 6.1 people per square mile, compared to the national average of 283 people per square mile. Sabine Pass also had two civil war battles that occurred, Battle of Sabine Pass I & II, and for that one of the main attractions for the city is the historical site of battle grounds and museums. Sabine Pass serves as a major transit for oil and gas tankers that navigate through the pass en route to Port Arthur and Beaumont.
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Storm Surge History |
Infographics
This histogram provides the maximum water levels of the 59 recorded storm tide events at Pensacola since 1890. The events are ordered from the highest water level (Rank = 1) to lowest (Rank = 59). These events are not placed in chronological order. All data are detrended to remove the influence of relative sea level rise, so they represent water levels above an Annually-Adjusted Mean Sea Level (AAMSL).
This time series provides maximum water levels from 59 recorded storm tide events at Pensacola since 1890. These events are ordered chronologically from oldest (left) to newest (right). The numerous low-magnitude events in recent decades are influenced by both climate and data availability. All data are converted to NAVD88 datum, however, the data are intentionally not detrended, so the influence of relative sea level rise is included. SLR trend taken from NOAA tide gauge at Pensacola.
Graph of the four most severe storm surge events at Pensacola, as well as the amount of water (6.50 feet) needed for a 2019 storm to reach FEMA's BFE, considering the annual Mean Sea Level (MSL).
Statistics/ Return Period
Storm tide return levels graph for Pensacola. This graph uses a log-linear regression plot based on observed data from 1890-2018 (129 years). The graph uses the Weiboll Plotting Position Formula, whereby the probability of an extreme event occurring is Rank/ (n+1), where "n" is the number of years in the data record. These data have been detrended to remove the influence of sea level rise and all data are plotted relative to Annually Adjusted Mean Sea Level (AAMSL). The regression line represents the line of best fit and indicates return levels (y-axis) for various return periods (x-axis).
Return Period |
Storm Tide Level (Feet above AAMSL) |
500-year |
12.63 |
200-year |
10.77 |
100-year |
9.37 |
50-year |
7.97 |
25-year |
6.57 |
10-year |
4.71 |
Extreme water levels above Annually-Adjusted Mean Sea Level (AAMSL) with long-term sea level rise removed. The correct way to interpret these levels is as follows: Based on a log-linear regression of observed data from 1890-2018, storm tide levels at Pensacola should equal or exceed 9.37 ft every 100 years, on average, above the annually-adjusted MSL. According to the regression equation, the 1906 Hurricane's 9.97-ft storm tide was a 135-year event and Hurricane Ivan's (2004) 9.71-foot storm tide was a 118-year event.
Sea Level Rise and Future Extreme Water Levels
Long-term SLR graph for Pensacola, Florida. The long-term rate of SLR is 0.76 feet/century.
Source: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8779770.
Source: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8779770.
Graph of SLR scenarios for Pensacola, Florida, from NOAA et al. (2017). The CorpsClimate web-tool developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers provided this graph. Data revised July 18, 2017. Available on the Web at: http://corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfm.
Table of SLR scenarios for Pensacola, Florida, from CorpsClimate web-tool developed by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
Data from this table revised July 18, 2017. Available on the Web at: http://corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfm.
Data from this table revised July 18, 2017. Available on the Web at: http://corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfm.
Year |
100-Year Flood Intermediate SLR |
100-Year Flood Intermediate-High SLR |
2000 |
9.73 |
9.73 |
2020 |
10.19 |
10.32 |
2040 |
10.71 |
11.04 |
2060 |
11.44 |
12.19 |
2080 |
12.32 |
13.63 |
2100 |
13.37 |
15.57 |
This table provides future 100-year water levels above NAVD88 datum. These numbers are calculated by adding four values: 1) The 100-year storm tide listed in the Statistics/ Return Period section- measured in feet above AAMSL; 2) An adjustment from MSL to NAVD88, which involved adding 0.30 ft to all water levels for Pensacola; 3) A conversion from water levels in 1992 (the mean year of the Present Epoch for Pensacola tide gauge data) to 2000, based on a long-term SLR rate of 0.76 ft/ century, which meant adding 0.06 ft; 4) Sea-Level rise projections from NOAA (2017), shown in the Future SLR Graph and Table above.
Extreme water level predictions for the 100-year coastal flood event at Pensacola. All of these projected values pertain to water levels for the "100-year storm" (1% annual chance) in the future. This analysis assumes stationarity in the flood level above the Annually Adjusted Mean Sea Level (AAMSL), so the increase in values are completely due to sea-level rise. According to this graph, there is a 1% chance that water levels will equal or exceed 12.19 feet in the year 2060, according to the intermediate-high SLR projection. These values do not account for wave action in velocity zones.
Data Sources
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Tide Gauge Site: Sabine Pass, Tx 8770570
Operation: National Ocean Service (NOS) Coordinates: Lat: 29.7169 Lon: -93.8667 6-Min Water Level Data January 1, 1996 - Present Hourly Water Level Data January 28, 1985 - February 28, 2019 The NOS tide gauge at Sabine Pass North provides verified hourly data since 1985 and verified 6-min data since 1996. |
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Data from Sabine Pass come from within a data-selection circle with a 3 mile radius centered on the coordinates: lat: 29.7360, lon: -93.8740. This area contains the waterfront community of Sabine Pass and NOAA's Sabine Pass North tide gauge. This region provides insights into coastal flood events that approach Port Arthur and Beaumont from the southeast. As Sabine Pass is located on the Texas/ Louisiana border, area within the circle falls in both states.
Missing Data
We have identified five hurricanes/ tropical storms since 1900 that may have generated storm tides exceeding 4 ft (1.22 m) near Pensacola, but a literature review does not yet provide data. These maps are provided by Unisys Corporation
Storm Surge Multimedia
Note: All of these pics/ video were taken from Pensacola area
Hurricane Nate (2017)
Nice storm surge video at Pensacola. At 51 seconds into the video do you see evidence of a nice rip current pushing offshore? Look for elongated area of white water perpendicular to the coast. Any coastal experts want to confirm this?
Hurricane Isaac (2012)
Hurricane Katrina (2005)
Hurricane Ivan (2004)
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_uzqfhwc4k&t=196s. Excellent storm surge footage at several places in this video. The footage at 2:45 is amazing...shot from a parking garage in the dark. This video was the first to teach me what storm surge really looks like...I remember that I was surprised to see the waves were so low-magnitude/ high-frequency. Excellent work, Mike!
Frederic (1979)
Librarians at Pensacola Library sent this image
Unnamed (1932)
Great Miami Hurricane (1926)
Link: http://www.hurricanecity.com/images/4-1926%20hurricane.jpg
Unnamed (1906)
Pensacola Harbor in 1906. Link: https://www.floridamemory.com/items/show/38376