About South Padre Island

South Padre Island is the name of a city and a barrier island  in extreme South Texas, just north of the Mexican border. At the 2010 U.S. Census, the city had a population of 2,800+ people, however it is part of the larger Brownsville-Harlingen Metropolitan Statistical Area, which contains 420,000+ people. Tourism is the dominant industry, as the city contains hundreds of condos and hotels, and hosts more than one million visitors per year. The month of March is especially popular, as tens of thousands of spring breakers flock to the Island.
Storm Surge History

Scientific and anecdotal literature provide high water marks for 37 storm surge events at South Padre Island since 1900. The highest water levels were produced by Hurricane Beulah, which generated a 12-ft (3.66-m) storm tide above MSL in 1967, and an unnamed hurricane that produced a 11-ft (3.35-m) storm surge in 1933. The bathymetry, or offshore water depth, is deeper in this region than most other locations in coastal Texas, which serves to reduce storm surge levels, while increasing wave heights.

Infographics

Histogram

This histogram provides the maximum water levels of the 37 recorded storm tide events at South Padre Island since 1900. The events are ordered from the highest water level (Rank = 1) to lowest (Rank = 37). These events are not placed in chronological order. All data are detrended to remove the influence of relative sea level rise and converted to NAVD88 datum.​

Time Series

This time series provides the maximum water levels of 37 recorded storm tide events at South Padre Island since 1900. These events are ordered chronologically from oldest (left) to newest (right). The numerous low-magnitude events in recent decades are influenced by both climate and data availability, as NOAA tide gauges at Port Isabel (since 1977) and South Padre Island Coast Guard Station (since 2004) provide data for the graphs on this page. All data are converted to NAVD88 datum, however, the data are intentionally not detrended, so the influence of relative sea level rise is included. SLR trend taken from NOAA tide gauge at Port Isabel.

Map of Highest Recorded Storm Tide

Hurricane Beulah (1967) generated a 12 ft (3.88m) storm tide above MSL, which is the highest recorded water level at S Padre Island/ Port Isabel. Farther north, Beulah generated an 18-ft storm surge near the S Padre Island/ Deer Island Boundary.

Return Period


​Storm tide return levels based on observed data from 1900-2016 (117 years) for South Padre Island. This method uses a log-linear regression plot. Needham (2014) found that log-linear regression plots produced a better statistical fit than Extreme Value Theory for storm tide analysis along the U.S. Gulf Coast. These data have been detrended to remove the influence of relative sea level rise.
$$y=3.1818ln(x)-2.619 \mid R^2=0.98468$$
Return Level
Surge Height (ft)
500-year
17.15
100-year
12.03
50-year
9.83
25-year
7.62
10-year
4.71
The correct way to interpret this analysis is as follows: Based on a log-linear regression of observed data from 1900-2016, storm tide levels for South Padre Island should equal or exceed 12.03 ft every 100 years, on average.

According to this equation, Hurricane Beulah's (1967) storm tide, which reached 12.0 ft above NAVD88 (when detrended for sea-level rise), was a 99-year event. This was the highest observed water level on record.

Storm Surge Data

Ideally, storm surge data would be taken from long-term tide gauges. Unfortunately, this is not possible for several reasons:
​
1. The record length of most tide gauges is not long enough to capture more than several decades of data (there are a few exceptions)
2. Large storm surges exceeding 10 ft (3.05 m) often destroy tide gauges
3. Storm surge is a localized phenomenon, with surge heights often changing considerably over several miles. Therefore, tide gauges usually do not pick up the peak storm surge because the network of gauges is not dense enough

Considering these problems, U-Surge utilizes polygons for data selection within an area. We provide two types of data:

1. Raw Data
  • All data within a 25-mile box along the coast
  • Many observations for numerous storms
  • ​Data are not converted to a common datum
​
2. Peak water level per storm
  • Highest water level per storm within a circle with a 10-mile (16-km) radius.
  • Data are converted to a common datum (NAVD88)​
Raw Data
Raw data are provided from a data-selection box that is 25 miles long along the South Texas Coast.
​U-Surge contains 103 high water marks from 39 unique tropical storms and hurricanes since 1880.
data_raw_spi_161011.xlsx
File Size: 69 kb
File Type: xlsx
Download File
Peak Water Level
The South Padre Island data selection circle is centered on the following coordinates: Lat: 26.0617; Lon: -97.1906. U-surge provides water levels for the 37 recorded tropical surges at South Padre Island/ Port Isabel, for the 117-year period 1900-2016. These observations are the peak water levels per storm.
data_peak_spi_170108.xlsx
File Size: 15 kb
File Type: xlsx
Download File
Storm-By-Storm
This file contains text metadata for events from 1900 - present. This information is particularly important for estimating maximum water levels in events where water depths are provided above ground level. All observations in the raw data have the source from which they came. Keyword searches may be helpful to find information for the South Padre Island area.
spi_metadata_170112.docx
File Size: 90 kb
File Type: docx
Download File

Sea Level Rise

Graph of future SLR scenarios at South Padre Island. Linear and low exponential plots overlap.
Year
Linear
Low_Ex
Med_Ex
High_Ex
2017
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2042
0.28
0.28
0.34
0.39
2067
0.57
0.59
0.78
0.97
2092
0.86
0.89
1.33
1.77
2117
1.14
1.21
1.98
2.76
Table of estimated SLR in 25-year increments for various SLR scenarios. Units are feet above 2017 Mean Sea Level (MSL).
Historical Map
NOAA Tides and Currents sea level rise trend map shows historical sea level rise rates of between 1-2 feet per century at both South Padre Island and Port Isabel tide gauges.

Mean Sea Level Trends
SLR Scenario Equations
Scenario
Equation
Linear
$$y = 0.0114x$$
Low Exponential
​$$y = 0.0114x + (6.9141\mathrm{e}{-06})x^2$$
Medium Exponential
​$$y = 0.0114x + (8.4380\mathrm{e}{-05})x^2$$
High Exponential
​$$y = 0.0114x + (1.6185\mathrm{e}{-04})x^2$$

Data Sources

Tide Gauge Data from NOAA Tides and CurrentS
Tide Gauge Site #1: Port Isabel Tide Gauge
Operation: National Ocean Service (NOS)
Coordinates: Lat: 26.0617, Lon: -97.215
Dataset

​6-min Water Level Data
Jan 1, 1996 - Nov 30, 2015

Hourly Water Level Data
Jan 26, 1977 - Jun 6, 1984
Jun 12, 1985 - Nov 30, 2015
The NOS tide gauge at Port Isabel provides verified hourly data since 1977 and verified 6-min data since 1996.​
Tide Gauge from U.S. Coast Guard
Tide Gauge Site #2: South Padre Island Coast Guard Station
​Operation: TCOON
Coordinates: Lat: 26.0767, Lon: -97.1767
Dataset

6-min Water Level Data
Apr 7, 2004    - Oct 13, 2007
Aug 22, 2008 - Oct 13, 2014
Sep 22, 2015 - present
The South Padre Island Coast Guard (TCOON) Tide Gauge
Additional
Other Scientific Sources
See Needham and Keim (2012) for other scientific sources used to build South Padre Island storm surge data.

Anecdotal Sources
​See Needham and Keim (2012) for anecdotal sources, such as newspaper archives, that were helpful for building Apalachicola storm surge data.

Missing Data

We have identified eight hurricanes/ tropical storms that may have generated storm surges exceeding 4 ft (1.22 m) near South Padre Island/ Port Isabel between 1900- present, but a literature review does not yet provide data. The maps are provided by Unisys Corporation.
  • June 21-29, 1902
  • June 21-29, 1913
  • August 12-20, 1916
  • August 23-September 1, 1942
  • August 24-29, 1945
  • Hurricane Alice
  • Hurricane Celia
  • Hurricane Caroline
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​​June 24-26, 1954



Hurricane Celia
​July 31 - August 5, 1970


August 24 - September 1, 1975

Local Partnership

This website will be publicly open from June 1, 2017 - June 1, 2018 thanks to funding provided by the City of South Padre Island. In this partnership, the City of South Padre Island has demonstrated values in long-term community investment and a commitment to open and applied science.


Resources

Cameron County
Harte Research Institute
​MISSION AND VISION

HRI's Vision: A Gulf of Mexico that is ecologically and economically sustainable
​
HRI's Mission: Science-driven solutions to Gulf of Mexico problems


RESEARCH

Selected research projects: http://harteresearchinstitute.org/geospace-research


CONTACTS

Contact Dr. James Gibeaut for localized expertise related to sea-level rise and coastal mapping

Here is a list of additional contacts at HRI: http://harteresearchinstitute.org/contact

​Storm Surge Multimedia
Note: Each of these pics/ videos were taken at South Padre Island/ Port Isabel

  • Hurricane Isaac
  • Hurricane Alex
  • Hurricane Ike
  • Hurricane Dolly
  • Hurricane Rita
  • Hurricane Allen
  • Hurricane Beulah
  • Unnamed (1933)
    ​
<
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Hurricane Isaac (2012) produced substantial waves but minimal storm surge at South Padre Island. We posted this video because: 1) It shows the power of hurricanes to displace water across great distances; 2) People were surfing/ having fun in a responsible way...on waves outside the main impact zone (we do not post videos of people in waves near the impact zone); and 3) A lot of us involved in this research have coastal interests and love to surf!
This video provides some nice storm surge footage. Easy to see in beginning, but look closely through storm door in middle of video and you can see waves hitting the building where video was taken. Click video for source.
Water covers Padre Boulevard as Hurricane Dolly makes landfall on South Padre Island, Texas on Wednesday, July 23, 2008.
(AP Photo/San Antonio, Express-News, Jerry Lara). Click photo for link to source.
Storm surge elevated this boat onto land at South Padre Island during Hurricane Dolly. Photographer: FEMA/ Patsy Lynch. Photo Date: July 28, 2008. Link: http://www.city-data.com/disaster-photos/37375.html

Unnamed (August 5, 1933)

Source: Galveston Daily News, August 6, 1933, Page 4